* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072020 07/25/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 43 47 51 55 58 62 66 70 73 76 80 82 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 43 47 51 55 58 62 66 70 73 76 80 82 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 37 39 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 6 7 10 4 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 2 1 3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 310 318 256 273 270 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.3 27.8 28.4 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 151 143 137 145 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 149 151 143 137 145 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 11 10 9 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 57 58 59 59 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 8 7 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 24 24 26 22 33 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 26 21 25 35 14 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -5 -1 -1 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 272 175 0 44 95 128 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.4 10.7 11.1 11.5 12.2 12.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.8 59.4 61.0 62.6 64.3 67.8 71.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 17 17 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 43 40 27 18 12 27 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 32. 34. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 23. 27. 31. 35. 38. 41. 45. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.0 57.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 GONZALO 07/25/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.73 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.73 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 17.4% 10.9% 7.6% 7.0% 10.0% 12.2% 15.7% Logistic: 6.4% 30.3% 19.0% 15.1% 11.0% 22.4% 13.0% 30.3% Bayesian: 0.6% 17.0% 4.2% 0.4% 0.1% 2.1% 0.2% 10.2% Consensus: 4.5% 21.6% 11.4% 7.7% 6.0% 11.5% 8.5% 18.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 GONZALO 07/25/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 GONZALO 07/25/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 39 43 47 51 55 58 62 66 70 73 76 80 82 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 41 45 49 53 56 60 64 68 71 74 78 80 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 37 41 45 49 52 56 60 64 67 70 74 76 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 30 34 38 42 45 49 53 57 60 63 67 69 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT