* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HANNA AL082020 07/24/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 43 44 48 49 50 49 50 50 51 52 52 52 52 52 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 43 44 48 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 44 47 34 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 15 11 8 19 15 25 13 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -4 0 -3 0 -3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 334 1 16 347 334 4 333 354 318 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.2 30.1 29.0 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 165 169 167 163 154 170 150 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 145 147 145 141 133 146 129 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 10 11 10 11 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 64 64 65 60 66 63 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 11 10 12 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 8 24 25 17 30 20 32 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -22 -16 13 21 5 21 22 33 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -4 -2 -10 -5 -4 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 316 315 262 201 151 33 -112 -253 -385 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.0 92.9 93.8 94.6 95.5 97.1 98.6 100.0 101.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 29 43 52 34 22 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 29. 32. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -3. -6. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 9. 13. 14. 15. 14. 15. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 26.5 92.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082020 HANNA 07/24/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.59 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.72 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 15.9% 10.1% 7.1% 6.2% 8.4% 9.9% 11.5% Logistic: 10.1% 35.8% 33.5% 26.5% 10.4% 16.0% 13.6% 12.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 11.3% Consensus: 5.5% 17.9% 15.1% 11.3% 5.5% 8.3% 8.0% 11.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082020 HANNA 07/24/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082020 HANNA 07/24/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 40 43 44 48 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 40 44 30 25 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 35 39 25 20 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 30 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT