* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GONZALO AL072020 07/24/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 56 59 63 64 69 69 71 69 73 75 77 79 82 84 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 56 59 63 64 69 69 71 69 73 75 77 79 82 84 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 53 55 57 60 61 63 65 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 7 7 8 8 12 5 11 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 3 6 6 4 3 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 320 315 260 286 312 280 322 249 252 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.7 28.6 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 148 145 149 148 154 152 154 149 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 150 148 145 149 148 154 152 154 149 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 11 10 10 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 53 53 54 55 58 62 65 66 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 10 11 12 9 10 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 27 36 29 23 28 33 39 42 59 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 4 13 14 22 39 43 37 43 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -6 -6 -8 -8 2 6 17 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 553 521 521 508 437 180 222 324 233 192 372 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.9 10.2 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.8 12.7 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.2 52.5 53.8 55.2 56.6 59.7 62.8 65.8 68.9 72.0 75.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 14 15 16 16 15 16 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 41 38 39 57 39 41 44 69 62 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 22. 24. 26. 26. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -3. -3. -7. -8. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 9. 13. 14. 19. 19. 21. 19. 23. 25. 27. 29. 32. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 9.9 51.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072020 GONZALO 07/24/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.80 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 278.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.63 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 21.8% 12.0% 8.3% 7.8% 14.3% 23.2% 32.3% Logistic: 8.3% 32.4% 21.5% 9.4% 7.1% 12.2% 15.1% 23.9% Bayesian: 0.7% 14.0% 3.4% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 1.1% 6.6% Consensus: 5.3% 22.7% 12.3% 5.9% 5.0% 9.2% 13.1% 20.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072020 GONZALO 07/24/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072020 GONZALO 07/24/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 55 56 59 63 64 69 69 71 69 73 75 77 79 82 84 18HR AGO 50 49 52 53 56 60 61 66 66 68 66 70 72 74 76 79 81 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 50 54 55 60 60 62 60 64 66 68 70 73 75 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 47 48 53 53 55 53 57 59 61 63 66 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT