* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/23/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 112 114 113 108 99 86 74 61 55 49 44 42 41 38 37 37 V (KT) LAND 105 112 114 113 108 99 86 74 61 55 48 43 41 40 37 36 36 V (KT) LGEM 105 111 111 105 98 83 73 66 58 46 47 44 43 41 38 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 1 6 7 16 18 24 22 26 26 28 20 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 0 0 0 2 3 3 6 4 4 2 SHEAR DIR 329 284 197 122 60 123 268 237 249 244 257 259 258 249 268 263 279 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.7 26.1 26.1 25.2 25.5 25.7 26.1 26.8 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 143 127 127 117 120 122 126 133 142 142 145 144 147 155 158 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 63 65 62 55 51 46 42 40 39 44 44 45 46 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 22 23 21 21 20 19 15 15 14 13 12 12 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 32 25 17 18 14 9 -3 -1 -4 -4 0 0 -5 -23 -27 -24 -14 200 MB DIV 33 17 31 35 15 18 23 10 7 -7 -8 0 -7 24 1 12 0 700-850 TADV -1 1 3 1 -1 1 5 7 1 7 6 0 0 0 -5 -5 -11 LAND (KM) 2210 2029 1849 1668 1487 1145 806 486 177 14 136 240 568 925 1264 1603 1932 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.9 14.5 15.2 15.8 16.9 18.0 18.9 19.6 20.1 20.5 20.8 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.1 136.7 138.2 139.8 141.3 144.3 147.3 150.2 153.1 156.0 159.1 162.3 165.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 15 15 14 14 14 15 15 16 16 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 31 17 12 12 17 38 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -5. -12. -20. -28. -35. -40. -43. -45. -45. -45. -46. -47. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 9. 6. 2. -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -10. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 9. 8. 3. -6. -19. -31. -44. -50. -56. -61. -63. -64. -67. -68. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 13.3 135.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/23/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.05 0.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 7.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.96 7.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 535.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.31 -1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 47% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 47.1% 29.0% 24.1% 20.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.3% 4.4% 5.7% 3.4% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 20.5% 11.2% 9.9% 8.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/23/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##