* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/22/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 70 75 86 87 83 74 67 58 53 45 43 40 36 34 V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 70 75 86 87 83 74 67 58 53 45 42 40 36 34 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 62 65 71 75 72 67 60 54 48 43 39 36 33 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 4 5 3 5 3 2 8 6 8 13 15 19 24 29 26 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -3 -2 0 0 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 0 1 4 3 SHEAR DIR 327 313 317 334 30 6 3 341 310 287 266 263 260 260 256 253 247 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.6 27.8 27.1 25.9 24.9 25.4 25.4 26.0 26.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 150 152 144 137 124 113 119 119 125 128 140 142 143 143 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 9 700-500 MB RH 71 72 70 69 68 64 62 58 55 52 49 45 41 39 40 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 18 19 18 21 20 20 18 18 16 16 12 11 10 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 53 59 58 49 46 21 13 -2 -6 -12 -2 -7 2 -8 -7 -11 -11 200 MB DIV 56 56 61 78 75 25 33 -3 1 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -16 -9 -6 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 1 4 7 1 -2 5 8 3 10 2 2 0 0 -7 LAND (KM) 2143 2227 2315 2375 2432 2220 1886 1552 1239 936 625 319 11 181 254 511 833 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.6 12.9 14.1 15.5 16.7 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.0 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.4 128.6 129.8 131.0 132.1 134.7 137.5 140.4 143.2 146.0 148.9 151.8 154.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 15 16 16 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 12 15 24 10 6 0 0 0 0 0 1 24 21 14 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -0. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 31. 32. 28. 19. 12. 3. -2. -10. -12. -15. -19. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.9 127.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/22/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.58 9.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.85 11.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.51 6.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 10.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 6.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -7.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 55.8% 48.5% 31.8% 21.6% 41.3% 29.5% 14.9% Logistic: 14.3% 41.6% 30.7% 19.9% 11.3% 14.2% 5.0% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.9% 11.0% 4.3% 2.2% 1.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 10.1% 36.2% 27.8% 18.0% 11.4% 19.0% 11.6% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/22/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##