* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/12/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 26 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 26 23 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 12 13 13 13 12 14 13 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 220 241 261 264 262 254 252 272 285 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.2 22.7 22.6 23.0 22.8 22.4 22.8 23.3 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 95 90 89 93 91 87 91 96 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 55 52 53 51 50 46 44 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 15 14 12 10 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 56 50 46 34 18 12 14 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -12 -22 -31 -14 -18 -7 -22 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 15 3 -1 3 11 1 8 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1283 1371 1465 1563 1665 1834 1975 1809 1549 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.4 22.0 22.4 22.9 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.9 126.2 127.4 128.7 129.9 132.4 135.0 137.7 140.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -3. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -17. -19. -21. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -17. -18. -17. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -11. -14. -19. -25. -30. -37. -41. -43. -46. -47. -49. -50. -51. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.6 124.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/12/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.29 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.08 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/12/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##