* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTINA EP052020 07/09/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 64 65 63 58 51 44 36 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 64 65 63 58 51 44 36 27 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 62 62 63 62 56 49 42 36 31 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 8 6 7 5 5 5 12 14 15 18 16 20 33 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 -2 -2 -3 -1 -5 -4 -3 0 0 0 4 2 2 3 SHEAR DIR 33 42 48 55 41 49 59 347 323 279 267 274 289 300 291 284 276 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.3 27.0 26.3 24.0 23.1 23.0 22.5 22.6 22.5 23.0 23.5 23.9 24.1 24.7 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 138 135 128 104 95 94 88 89 88 93 98 102 104 111 111 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -53.2 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 75 75 72 68 64 59 54 49 47 44 43 39 34 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 23 26 27 27 26 23 21 18 16 14 11 10 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 26 36 37 41 45 55 59 80 84 96 84 79 53 52 28 23 14 200 MB DIV 47 47 45 27 14 6 14 17 -23 -17 -16 -10 -9 -38 -11 -21 3 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 -1 -4 -3 4 -3 2 4 -1 6 0 10 2 9 9 LAND (KM) 592 560 554 588 650 770 977 1168 1409 1661 1906 2019 1740 1482 1226 971 720 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.3 20.8 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.4 21.4 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.7 112.7 114.0 115.2 118.0 120.9 123.9 126.9 129.8 132.7 135.5 138.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -19. -22. -25. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -5. -8. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. -2. -9. -16. -24. -33. -39. -46. -50. -52. -56. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.6 110.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052020 CRISTINA 07/09/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.41 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.56 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 6.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.73 -4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 22.9% 22.0% 17.0% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 5.1% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 9.4% 8.0% 5.9% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052020 CRISTINA 07/09/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##