* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052020 07/05/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 45 52 52 51 48 44 39 35 30 27 24 24 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 45 52 52 51 48 44 39 35 30 27 24 24 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 20 26 30 30 36 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -5 -5 0 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 253 240 250 250 246 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 24.4 24.4 24.9 24.1 23.3 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 104 105 109 104 99 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 94 95 96 100 95 90 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.3 -55.5 -55.4 -55.4 -55.8 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 61 60 61 61 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 12 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 19 19 18 33 66 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 34 54 26 30 77 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 15 0 9 29 55 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 962 1001 965 924 873 666 703 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.9 34.1 35.3 36.7 38.1 40.9 43.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.8 63.8 61.8 59.2 56.7 51.0 45.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 20 23 25 25 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 12 CX,CY: 10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 11. 10. 9. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 2. -5. -12. -18. -24. -29. -35. -42. -47. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 22. 22. 21. 18. 14. 9. 5. 0. -3. -6. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.9 65.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052020 FIVE 07/05/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.12 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.34 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.08 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 6.2% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.5% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052020 FIVE 07/05/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052020 FIVE 07/05/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 39 45 52 52 51 48 44 39 35 30 27 24 24 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 42 49 49 48 45 41 36 32 27 24 21 21 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 37 44 44 43 40 36 31 27 22 19 16 16 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 35 35 34 31 27 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT