* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052020 07/05/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 38 41 44 51 50 48 44 40 36 31 28 26 27 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 38 41 44 51 50 48 44 40 36 31 28 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 37 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 21 21 23 30 35 38 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -3 -1 -5 -6 -1 1 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 260 257 253 242 246 238 243 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 25.1 24.6 24.6 24.8 24.0 22.2 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 108 105 106 108 104 93 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 97 95 97 99 95 86 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.0 -55.3 -55.6 -55.4 -56.0 -56.2 -56.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 5 4 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 57 58 61 62 64 62 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 17 16 17 17 55 79 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 14 38 48 25 44 51 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 7 8 2 2 13 26 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 897 995 1016 975 935 811 693 1001 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.1 33.1 34.0 35.3 36.6 39.4 42.3 45.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.0 65.3 63.7 61.4 59.2 53.5 46.9 40.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 20 22 25 28 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 13 CX,CY: 12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. -4. -11. -16. -22. -27. -32. -39. -44. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 21. 20. 18. 14. 10. 6. 1. -2. -4. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.1 67.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052020 FIVE 07/05/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.22 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.35 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 81.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.19 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 8.5% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.5% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052020 FIVE 07/05/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052020 FIVE 07/05/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 36 38 41 44 51 50 48 44 40 36 31 28 26 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 39 42 49 48 46 42 38 34 29 26 24 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 34 37 44 43 41 37 33 29 24 21 19 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 28 35 34 32 28 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT