* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/07/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 48 48 50 52 56 50 45 36 31 26 20 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 32 30 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 37 32 30 28 28 29 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 11 13 9 13 15 49 44 38 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -4 0 2 1 5 3 9 -6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 328 212 223 250 244 217 207 195 176 165 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.6 27.6 27.0 26.9 28.4 28.4 5.4 7.0 7.3 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 132 132 125 124 145 146 67 66 66 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 113 115 115 109 109 126 128 66 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.6 -50.3 -50.5 -50.7 -50.1 -50.5 -48.9 -47.5 -46.7 -46.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.3 0.8 1.7 2.9 3.1 2.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 9 10 6 4 12 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 49 45 43 45 46 50 60 62 73 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 25 23 23 23 21 27 29 29 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 49 39 -7 -38 33 106 131 251 294 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 38 34 44 50 117 122 111 85 69 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 -1 9 7 -10 25 45 -15 -90 -6 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 106 -6 -14 -133 -271 -593 -998 -999 -999 -999 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.2 29.2 30.2 31.4 32.6 35.5 39.3 43.8 47.8 50.9 54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.9 90.2 90.5 91.0 91.4 92.0 91.5 89.8 87.5 85.3 83.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 12 13 14 16 21 22 19 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 4 2 1 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 13 CX,CY: 1/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -18. -23. -26. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. -19. -22. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -8. -2. -1. -2. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 11. 5. -0. -9. -14. -19. -25. -30. -33. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.2 89.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/07/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.73 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 305.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.35 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 14.1% 9.4% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 3.7% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.9% 3.8% 2.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/07/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/07/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 41 37 32 30 28 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 40 35 33 31 31 32 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 36 34 32 32 33 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 31 31 32 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT