* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/06/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 50 52 54 52 52 55 53 43 34 27 21 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 50 52 46 34 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 47 48 50 51 48 34 29 28 29 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 9 7 5 7 8 12 18 20 38 61 62 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 -2 -4 0 1 0 2 12 6 -11 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 113 168 277 348 237 241 238 232 212 208 194 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.3 26.6 27.7 28.1 3.4 5.6 6.5 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 131 129 126 128 121 135 142 66 66 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 114 117 114 111 112 106 118 124 N/A 66 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.2 -50.3 -49.7 -50.4 -49.4 -47.5 -47.0 -47.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.3 0.9 0.2 -0.7 1.2 2.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 6 6 10 5 12 2 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 63 61 58 55 48 45 45 47 60 61 68 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 27 27 27 27 25 22 22 23 23 25 27 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 93 90 79 69 32 -29 6 90 88 245 290 177 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 64 59 38 46 53 35 134 131 109 89 67 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 1 4 7 1 8 -13 27 24 70 57 -43 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 293 391 389 284 179 -20 -190 -495 -886 -999 -999 -999 -999 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.7 25.6 26.6 27.5 29.4 31.7 34.6 38.3 42.5 46.5 50.3 54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.1 90.1 90.2 90.2 90.3 90.7 91.5 91.9 91.3 89.6 87.4 84.7 82.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 11 13 16 20 22 21 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 20 26 19 5 3 1 3 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 3. -4. -14. -22. -27. -31. -32. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -11. -12. -13. -11. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 7. 10. 8. -2. -11. -18. -24. -28. -30. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 23.8 90.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/06/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.84 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.37 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.38 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 24.9% 16.6% 8.6% 7.8% 13.1% 15.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 11.3% 5.6% 1.0% 0.2% 2.7% 1.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 12.3% 7.5% 3.2% 2.7% 5.3% 5.7% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/06/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/06/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 48 50 52 46 34 29 28 29 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 45 47 49 43 31 26 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 45 39 27 22 21 22 23 23 23 23 23 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 31 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT