* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CRISTOBAL AL032020 06/03/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 56 57 58 57 58 63 68 76 75 70 65 60 53 54 62 V (KT) LAND 50 54 56 43 38 32 35 40 46 53 53 47 38 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 57 45 39 32 36 41 48 53 53 49 47 32 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 11 13 13 8 13 14 17 18 16 18 20 18 24 17 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 0 0 3 2 3 3 5 -2 3 -2 0 1 0 4 SHEAR DIR 300 305 306 311 308 305 283 258 238 224 213 182 233 247 277 262 210 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.0 29.0 27.5 27.6 27.4 26.8 26.9 26.9 25.9 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 160 164 167 167 168 167 151 130 131 129 122 123 123 113 129 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 143 147 149 150 157 151 137 118 118 114 107 106 106 97 109 109 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -50.8 -50.4 -50.3 -50.1 -50.3 -50.1 -50.4 -50.4 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.3 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 8 6 10 7 11 1 700-500 MB RH 82 81 81 83 82 80 79 78 72 66 58 50 47 48 47 47 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 16 14 14 13 13 17 21 27 27 23 20 17 14 14 25 850 MB ENV VOR 84 77 85 94 91 114 119 121 104 101 99 95 42 26 -27 73 60 200 MB DIV 53 48 30 37 41 63 78 83 79 85 49 85 21 1 21 44 27 700-850 TADV -3 -3 0 -1 -2 2 4 3 5 10 8 0 7 -4 3 28 1 LAND (KM) 44 22 0 -11 -22 0 29 60 152 350 349 143 -8 -216 -435 -666 -892 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 18.8 18.6 18.5 18.4 18.6 19.3 20.5 22.2 24.1 26.0 28.0 29.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.1 92.0 91.8 91.6 91.5 91.2 91.1 91.0 91.0 91.0 91.1 91.5 92.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 1 3 4 8 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 26 30 36 41 41 44 43 31 7 15 12 3 2 1 0 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):145/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 15. 13. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -3. 1. 8. 7. 1. -4. -7. -12. -11. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 8. 13. 18. 26. 25. 20. 15. 10. 3. 4. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 19.0 92.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/03/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 9.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.60 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.88 3.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.60 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 41.9% 28.1% 18.4% 9.4% 23.5% 26.4% 22.5% Logistic: 15.9% 61.1% 44.3% 21.7% 15.3% 28.1% 29.8% 29.9% Bayesian: 4.3% 14.9% 2.8% 2.7% 0.4% 2.4% 1.5% 19.5% Consensus: 11.4% 39.3% 25.0% 14.3% 8.4% 18.0% 19.2% 24.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/03/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 CRISTOBAL 06/03/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 56 43 38 32 35 40 46 53 53 47 38 30 28 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 51 38 33 27 30 35 41 48 48 42 33 25 23 22 22 12HR AGO 50 47 46 33 28 22 25 30 36 43 43 37 28 20 18 17 17 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 35 29 32 37 43 50 50 44 35 27 25 24 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT