* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032020 06/02/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 32 33 39 45 49 54 60 68 66 60 54 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 32 33 39 45 49 54 60 68 66 60 54 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 27 28 29 32 35 38 42 44 43 42 41 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 7 4 5 6 10 14 17 17 24 24 19 16 24 26 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 5 2 5 1 0 1 2 2 3 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 242 252 257 245 262 333 321 316 297 279 267 249 220 226 206 226 237 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.1 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.1 27.1 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 155 156 160 161 161 160 161 163 153 134 133 130 125 124 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 140 138 139 141 143 141 141 141 147 140 123 120 115 108 107 108 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -51.6 -52.1 -51.3 -51.6 -50.9 -51.1 -50.4 -50.6 -49.9 -50.0 -49.6 -49.8 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 7 5 8 5 7 5 8 6 9 7 9 6 13 700-500 MB RH 84 83 81 81 81 78 79 79 78 76 74 65 60 53 49 45 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 15 15 15 12 12 14 16 19 23 28 26 22 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 70 66 68 88 96 92 117 116 128 137 162 160 138 124 105 41 32 200 MB DIV 95 94 81 67 78 42 36 65 64 73 57 97 55 44 28 -4 6 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -3 -3 -5 -3 1 -4 -1 -6 4 0 7 8 2 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 88 111 112 99 88 61 42 42 39 56 167 174 345 361 192 76 -39 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.5 19.3 19.0 18.8 18.8 18.8 19.0 20.1 22.0 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.7 92.2 92.6 92.8 93.0 93.2 93.3 93.3 93.2 93.0 92.5 91.6 91.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 2 2 2 1 0 1 4 8 10 10 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 26 22 21 22 24 25 25 25 25 25 19 10 15 13 6 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 36. 38. 38. 38. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -6. -5. -3. 0. 5. 11. 7. 0. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 14. 20. 24. 29. 35. 43. 41. 35. 29. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.6 91.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032020 THREE 06/02/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.73 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 21.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.90 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.78 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.40 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.52 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 17.8% 11.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 38.9% 20.6% 9.4% 4.0% 14.5% 22.7% 52.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 10.0% Consensus: 2.9% 19.0% 10.6% 5.5% 1.4% 4.8% 11.6% 20.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032020 THREE 06/02/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032020 THREE 06/02/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 29 30 32 33 39 45 49 54 60 68 66 60 54 42 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 30 31 37 43 47 52 58 66 64 58 52 40 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 26 32 38 42 47 53 61 59 53 47 35 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 19 25 31 35 40 46 54 52 46 40 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT