* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEBASTIEN AL202019 11/24/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 51 50 45 48 56 54 53 50 46 42 35 29 22 16 V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 51 50 45 48 48 47 45 42 38 34 27 22 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 51 49 47 49 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 37 42 46 46 39 16 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 1 7 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 217 217 225 231 240 224 277 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.6 20.7 19.2 18.6 17.5 14.2 12.3 11.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 91 88 84 83 80 74 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 86 84 80 79 77 72 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.8 -55.5 -54.8 -54.7 -53.0 -52.7 -55.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.3 2.7 4.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 44 41 38 43 49 57 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 18 19 20 26 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -40 -37 -31 3 157 255 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 51 55 34 19 6 31 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 -41 -59 -6 -4 5 -19 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1596 1644 1745 1836 1463 834 267 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.2 36.9 38.5 40.3 42.0 45.9 49.7 53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 41.7 38.3 34.9 30.9 26.9 18.8 12.1 5.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 30 32 34 35 35 32 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 28 CX,CY: 21/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -21. -24. -27. -30. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -16. -19. -23. -26. -30. -35. -39. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. 15. 9. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 5. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -7. 1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -20. -26. -33. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 35.2 41.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/24/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 289.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.02 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/24/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/24/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 53 51 50 45 48 48 47 45 42 38 34 27 22 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 53 51 50 45 48 48 47 45 42 38 34 27 22 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 48 43 46 46 45 43 40 36 32 25 20 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 39 42 42 41 39 36 32 28 21 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT