* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEBASTIEN AL202019 11/19/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 42 42 45 50 47 48 47 47 46 45 45 45 46 45 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 42 42 45 50 47 48 47 47 46 45 45 45 46 45 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 42 42 42 42 42 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 23 23 25 20 22 24 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 1 -1 10 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 311 300 290 276 259 228 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.4 26.3 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 135 136 130 119 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 123 123 121 121 120 110 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.0 -55.2 -55.1 -55.1 -55.3 -55.3 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 52 51 48 48 37 27 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 12 15 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -34 -42 -49 -51 1 21 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 20 17 17 33 57 102 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -4 -2 0 3 14 46 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 700 691 690 718 752 949 1345 1737 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.3 22.9 24.6 27.2 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.4 59.8 60.1 60.3 60.4 59.5 56.8 54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 14 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 30 31 29 26 20 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -7. -11. -15. -18. -20. -21. -24. -25. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 2. 5. 10. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.4 59.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/19/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.21 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.49 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 9.3% 6.4% 4.9% 3.7% 6.1% 5.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.4% 2.2% 1.6% 1.3% 2.1% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/19/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202019 SEBASTIEN 11/19/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 42 42 45 50 47 48 47 47 46 45 45 45 46 45 18HR AGO 40 39 40 40 40 43 48 45 46 45 45 44 43 43 43 44 43 12HR AGO 40 37 36 36 36 39 44 41 42 41 41 40 39 39 39 40 39 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 33 38 35 36 35 35 34 33 33 33 34 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT