* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RAYMOND EP202019 11/17/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 31 28 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 31 28 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 28 25 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 27 35 41 46 61 51 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 0 5 9 4 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 227 231 231 227 220 223 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.0 22.6 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 140 137 135 131 125 90 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.0 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 58 56 56 50 43 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 15 14 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 22 27 55 61 48 43 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 50 49 77 65 7 33 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 18 19 30 23 9 12 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 734 623 513 399 292 175 166 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.6 18.6 19.7 20.8 23.1 25.5 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.1 112.0 111.8 111.8 111.7 112.4 114.5 116.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 11 11 12 13 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 6 4 3 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 838 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 11. 10. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -11. -20. -32. -43. -51. -55. -57. -59. -62. -68. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -7. -10. -17. -24. -32. -40. -48. -54. -58. -63. -69. -76. -86. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.6 112.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202019 RAYMOND 11/17/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 176.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.12 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202019 RAYMOND 11/17/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##