* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PABLO AL182019 10/26/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 59 59 60 57 51 49 45 41 36 33 29 27 22 20 V (KT) LAND 50 53 55 59 59 60 57 51 49 45 41 36 33 29 27 22 20 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 55 54 51 48 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 41 40 35 26 25 30 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -4 1 5 -5 -5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 218 221 243 256 266 264 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.9 22.0 20.7 19.1 18.8 17.2 16.4 15.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 95 90 84 79 77 72 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 86 82 77 73 70 66 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.9 -57.0 -58.6 -59.6 -60.4 -60.8 -60.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.1 2.2 1.4 0.7 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 47 46 47 47 53 60 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 20 20 20 16 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 148 137 137 125 110 86 116 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 57 54 56 25 0 22 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 7 16 42 46 39 45 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1561 1389 1221 1127 1004 957 1033 1027 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.9 37.3 38.7 40.2 41.7 43.9 45.5 47.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 26.6 24.9 23.3 22.2 21.2 20.9 21.6 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 19 18 17 14 10 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 22 CX,CY: 21/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. -19. -22. -25. -28. -29. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -10. -15. -19. -23. -27. -32. -37. -41. -43. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 18. 22. 27. 32. 34. 36. 38. 39. 38. 34. 31. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. -0. -5. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 9. 10. 7. 1. -1. -5. -9. -14. -17. -21. -23. -28. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 35.9 26.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182019 PABLO 10/26/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 254.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 3.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182019 PABLO 10/26/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 55 59 59 60 57 51 49 45 41 36 33 29 27 22 20 18HR AGO 50 49 51 55 55 56 53 47 45 41 37 32 29 25 23 18 16 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 50 51 48 42 40 36 32 27 24 20 18 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 41 38 32 30 26 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT