* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MELISSA AL142019 10/12/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 45 45 43 39 36 33 32 31 30 28 26 25 23 23 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 45 45 43 39 36 33 32 31 30 28 26 25 23 23 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 44 43 42 40 39 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 18 23 23 21 29 33 39 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 0 -1 0 -2 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 275 277 283 274 261 240 255 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.3 24.3 23.7 24.6 23.1 22.8 19.4 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 117 100 97 103 94 93 80 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 97 85 84 89 82 82 73 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.1 -56.1 -56.0 -56.3 -56.4 -57.0 -58.6 -59.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 37 40 41 41 38 34 36 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 15 13 12 9 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 155 135 83 55 42 38 16 -13 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 39 37 10 10 8 15 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -8 -1 -10 -13 -33 -35 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 431 467 522 515 541 622 659 639 785 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.3 38.6 38.8 39.1 39.4 40.0 40.8 41.4 42.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.5 66.3 65.1 63.6 62.0 58.4 54.5 50.0 45.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 13 15 16 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -5. -12. -15. -20. -24. -28. -33. -36. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 21. 22. 22. 21. 20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -18. -19. -21. -22. -23. -23. -23. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -17. -19. -20. -22. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 38.3 67.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142019 MELISSA 10/12/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.31 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.16 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.02 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 11.0% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 3.8% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.9% 3.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142019 MELISSA 10/12/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142019 MELISSA 10/12/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 46 45 45 43 39 36 33 32 31 30 28 26 25 23 23 18HR AGO 45 44 44 43 43 41 37 34 31 30 29 28 26 24 23 21 21 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 40 38 34 31 28 27 26 25 23 21 20 18 18 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 33 29 26 23 22 21 20 18 16 15 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT