* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP162019 10/01/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 48 48 48 47 44 36 28 22 20 19 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 40 44 37 35 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 40 43 37 35 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 16 21 25 32 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 2 4 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 137 129 154 180 192 223 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.3 28.6 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 162 162 163 157 150 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 -51.8 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 4 3 3 4 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 49 44 38 37 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 78 70 47 34 42 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 61 49 35 15 17 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 3 -1 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 25 -18 11 -19 -22 -49 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.9 26.7 27.5 28.2 29.4 30.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.4 109.1 109.8 110.4 110.9 111.8 112.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 11 10 9 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 27 28 28 23 18 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 20 CX,CY: -9/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 278 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. 25. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -14. -21. -27. -29. -30. -33. -36. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -4. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -9. -17. -23. -25. -26. -28. -31. -39. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 25.0 108.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162019 NARDA 10/01/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.75 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.09 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 312.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.56 -3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 27.6% 23.3% 17.2% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 0.9% 3.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 9.5% 8.9% 5.8% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162019 NARDA 10/01/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##