* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP162019 09/30/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 35 32 30 30 31 32 30 26 25 26 27 28 28 24 23 V (KT) LAND 35 36 35 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 35 30 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 12 11 12 14 20 18 24 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 3 3 3 4 3 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 99 98 99 108 134 178 211 218 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.7 28.9 28.4 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 165 165 162 161 152 147 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 5 4 4 1 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 65 59 55 50 41 38 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 6 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 112 84 71 69 53 27 37 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 87 64 44 35 43 26 16 32 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 0 1 1 0 -1 5 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 37 38 15 11 -28 -31 -51 -79 -71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.0 23.1 24.1 25.0 25.9 27.4 28.5 29.5 30.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.0 106.8 107.5 108.3 109.0 110.1 110.9 111.5 112.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 8 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 28 27 28 27 26 18 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 359 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 30. 32. 34. 37. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -8. -14. -18. -19. -20. -22. -24. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -5. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -11. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.0 106.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162019 NARDA 09/30/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.85 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.31 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.70 -4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.85 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 23.7% 21.8% 16.4% 12.0% 17.4% 16.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 6.3% 5.0% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 10.1% 9.0% 5.9% 4.2% 5.8% 5.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162019 NARDA 09/30/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##