* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NARDA EP162019 09/29/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 33 33 31 31 33 35 36 37 40 43 47 48 47 48 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 32 31 29 30 31 33 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 32 30 27 25 23 22 21 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 16 16 15 12 11 9 7 9 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 0 0 1 2 5 0 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 102 119 108 103 98 113 147 155 179 234 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.5 29.8 29.9 30.2 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.6 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 161 164 165 167 164 163 163 158 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -52.3 -52.9 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 6 6 4 4 3 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 79 75 69 63 54 44 42 41 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 10 9 8 8 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 100 117 114 98 75 72 24 34 19 25 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 141 118 74 54 37 37 19 20 24 18 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -14 -4 -6 -5 0 0 -2 1 3 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -56 -83 -33 37 83 75 44 56 11 0 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.7 20.7 21.7 22.6 24.2 25.4 26.4 27.2 28.0 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.0 104.0 105.0 106.0 106.9 108.4 109.5 110.1 110.5 110.8 111.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 13 12 9 7 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 19 25 27 26 28 30 32 32 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 18 CX,CY: -12/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 323 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 31. 34. 36. 39. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 13. 12. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.7 103.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162019 NARDA 09/29/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.82 7.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.25 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.61 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 23.1% 19.6% 14.0% 10.4% 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 10.2% 3.5% 1.7% 0.6% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% Consensus: 3.4% 11.2% 7.7% 5.2% 3.7% 6.2% 5.8% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162019 NARDA 09/29/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##