* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/27/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 40 43 48 48 47 46 46 46 47 46 46 46 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 40 43 48 48 47 46 46 46 47 46 46 46 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 34 34 34 35 36 38 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 16 13 13 19 17 20 20 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 348 352 4 343 345 339 304 272 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.2 27.9 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 145 144 144 144 138 134 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 121 118 117 121 117 114 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 52 51 50 48 43 43 47 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 8 -2 4 -11 -2 -11 6 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 4 8 -15 -18 -9 -7 31 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 4 2 0 0 1 3 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1161 1205 1249 1266 1283 1241 1180 1118 1068 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.5 61.0 60.4 60.3 60.1 60.8 62.1 63.5 65.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 3 2 1 4 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 42 43 41 39 37 38 27 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 769 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 22. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 13. 13. 12. 11. 11. 11. 12. 11. 11. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 28.1 61.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/27/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.50 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.52 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.43 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 11.9% 7.8% 5.7% 4.8% 7.3% 8.3% 6.7% Logistic: 2.7% 2.6% 4.0% 1.9% 0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 4.8% 4.0% 2.5% 1.7% 2.7% 2.9% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/27/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/27/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 39 40 43 48 48 47 46 46 46 47 46 46 46 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 38 41 46 46 45 44 44 44 45 44 44 44 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 34 37 42 42 41 40 40 40 41 40 40 40 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 27 30 35 35 34 33 33 33 34 33 33 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT