* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KAREN AL122019 09/23/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 32 31 30 32 34 39 42 46 51 57 62 67 66 67 67 V (KT) LAND 35 34 32 31 30 32 34 39 42 46 51 57 62 67 66 67 67 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 34 33 32 32 32 33 35 38 42 46 50 54 57 59 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 26 21 17 17 10 16 11 7 2 8 5 6 12 22 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -2 -3 0 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -6 -4 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 36 33 31 24 23 13 34 66 17 202 319 324 315 274 283 267 282 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.3 27.6 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 165 166 166 162 159 160 161 154 149 148 145 141 141 132 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 161 159 159 159 153 147 145 140 131 125 125 123 123 125 118 122 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 5 3 4 4 5 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 67 68 70 70 71 75 72 68 58 56 50 52 49 54 52 52 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 11 11 10 9 6 6 5 5 6 7 8 9 8 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 4 8 5 4 7 6 -17 -30 -26 -39 -54 -36 -49 -23 -21 0 -1 200 MB DIV 7 29 21 11 15 36 28 36 15 30 19 13 1 7 -11 8 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 -1 -3 -4 0 1 -1 0 0 -2 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 415 341 256 152 49 123 357 603 780 869 901 895 864 811 756 603 350 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.1 15.8 16.7 17.6 19.6 21.7 23.9 25.5 26.5 27.1 27.3 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.5 64.8 65.2 65.4 65.7 65.9 65.7 65.4 65.4 65.7 66.3 67.0 68.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 7 5 3 4 5 8 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 59 67 79 87 76 76 60 31 34 32 29 31 31 39 20 33 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. 33. 33. 33. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -17. -17. -16. -16. -14. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 4. 7. 11. 16. 22. 27. 32. 31. 32. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.4 64.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122019 KAREN 09/23/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.27 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 73.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.46 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.86 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 13.9% 8.6% 5.9% 5.2% 8.2% 10.9% 14.9% Logistic: 0.9% 2.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 1.7% 4.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.2% Consensus: 1.9% 5.6% 3.5% 2.1% 1.8% 3.2% 4.2% 6.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122019 KAREN 09/23/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122019 KAREN 09/23/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 32 31 30 32 34 39 42 46 51 57 62 67 66 67 67 18HR AGO 35 34 32 31 30 32 34 39 42 46 51 57 62 67 66 67 67 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 31 33 38 41 45 50 56 61 66 65 66 66 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 26 28 33 36 40 45 51 56 61 60 61 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT