* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LORENA EP152019 09/20/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 72 75 77 77 74 67 58 54 50 48 46 43 41 38 36 V (KT) LAND 65 68 72 75 77 77 74 67 58 54 50 48 46 43 41 38 36 V (KT) LGEM 65 68 71 73 74 72 66 59 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 3 2 6 10 3 15 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -4 -5 -3 0 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 210 141 137 70 127 195 173 212 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 29.8 29.4 29.1 28.7 27.1 26.1 24.4 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 161 157 154 150 134 124 106 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -50.8 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 5 4 4 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 57 55 55 49 44 38 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 67 59 65 56 44 47 34 44 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 41 30 20 3 18 3 21 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -1 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 93 41 17 61 95 108 162 140 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 22.8 22.9 23.1 23.2 23.9 24.9 26.1 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.9 109.6 110.2 110.8 111.4 112.7 113.9 115.0 116.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 22 16 13 11 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 12. 9. 2. -7. -11. -15. -17. -19. -22. -24. -27. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 22.6 108.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152019 LORENA 09/20/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.55 6.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.79 7.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 7.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 357.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 -3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.38 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 30.2% 46.7% 31.8% 22.4% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.2% 8.8% 8.6% 3.4% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 13.0% 18.9% 13.5% 8.6% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152019 LORENA 09/20/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##