* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL102019 09/20/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 76 75 73 72 71 70 66 69 75 79 79 73 71 63 55 V (KT) LAND 80 77 76 75 73 72 71 70 66 69 75 79 79 73 71 63 55 V (KT) LGEM 80 77 75 73 73 73 73 70 68 66 63 62 59 54 50 44 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 19 20 17 11 20 26 38 32 24 40 42 45 37 39 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 5 3 2 0 2 5 1 -1 -2 2 1 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 326 333 338 347 348 320 306 281 275 262 284 241 255 235 267 265 250 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.4 29.2 29.2 28.5 28.0 27.7 26.9 26.2 25.9 21.8 16.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 158 158 159 164 158 154 155 144 138 135 125 117 114 87 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 159 152 150 151 151 142 136 136 126 122 118 107 101 97 77 67 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.7 -53.1 -53.7 -53.8 -55.2 -55.0 -55.7 -55.7 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 10 10 9 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 51 56 61 62 70 70 63 57 48 40 42 48 53 57 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 12 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 15 18 20 22 20 22 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 14 9 4 1 -3 5 -2 -21 -22 -8 -2 32 69 66 0 -14 46 200 MB DIV 6 19 16 -4 7 29 33 51 49 37 56 29 55 59 33 45 88 700-850 TADV 4 1 -4 1 10 5 6 3 0 -1 9 16 16 11 32 27 0 LAND (KM) 644 513 399 336 319 433 494 630 808 1010 1065 1075 925 795 670 538 325 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.4 21.0 22.4 23.7 25.2 26.8 28.5 30.6 33.2 35.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 59.6 60.9 62.2 63.3 64.5 66.4 67.8 68.4 68.2 67.4 66.0 64.1 62.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 12 10 8 8 9 11 13 15 14 15 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 51 59 73 73 76 64 41 34 31 21 18 11 6 3 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. -18. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -5. -1. 1. 3. -1. 1. -1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -14. -11. -5. -1. -1. -7. -9. -17. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 18.5 59.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102019 JERRY 09/20/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.37 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 66.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.41 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 527.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.38 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.42 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 11.9% 8.1% 6.4% 6.2% 8.0% 6.9% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 3.4% 2.3% 1.7% 1.3% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.3% 3.5% 2.7% 2.5% 3.2% 2.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102019 JERRY 09/20/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102019 JERRY 09/20/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 5( 12) 4( 15) 4( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 77 76 75 73 72 71 70 66 69 75 79 79 73 71 63 55 18HR AGO 80 79 78 77 75 74 73 72 68 71 77 81 81 75 73 65 57 12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 73 72 71 70 66 69 75 79 79 73 71 63 55 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 68 67 66 65 61 64 70 74 74 68 66 58 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT