* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HUMBERTO AL092019 09/14/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 59 62 69 75 79 81 81 82 82 82 77 64 58 71 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 59 62 69 75 79 81 81 82 82 82 77 64 58 71 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 57 61 65 72 78 81 81 82 82 80 75 68 56 47 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 12 13 10 11 16 20 28 33 37 41 35 53 63 46 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 0 0 1 0 0 5 12 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 273 233 254 281 292 253 258 238 246 232 223 218 226 234 236 238 257 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.7 29.0 28.8 28.3 28.3 27.8 27.8 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 139 138 139 141 136 137 140 146 152 149 141 141 134 134 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 125 120 117 117 118 114 115 119 124 130 126 118 117 111 110 100 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.8 -53.1 -53.8 -55.2 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.4 0.7 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 7 8 7 7 5 5 4 4 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 51 56 56 55 57 59 51 47 46 43 41 39 43 42 36 32 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 16 16 19 21 22 24 26 29 33 36 39 35 34 46 850 MB ENV VOR 6 20 18 -13 -14 6 -17 0 12 32 68 70 99 106 49 -33 -40 200 MB DIV 3 21 37 14 14 41 9 38 19 29 47 65 86 37 6 -14 -10 700-850 TADV 5 6 7 9 5 3 3 0 0 -11 -12 -18 -4 12 -24 -18 -13 LAND (KM) 344 293 254 251 247 288 382 413 465 547 666 816 963 959 880 752 649 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 27.0 27.5 28.1 28.6 29.5 30.2 30.7 31.1 31.4 32.0 32.7 33.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 76.6 77.1 77.6 77.9 78.1 77.9 77.1 75.8 74.1 72.2 70.0 67.6 65.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 7 8 9 10 10 9 9 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 47 39 33 38 43 44 34 29 22 21 32 28 18 25 20 25 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -6. -11. -15. -22. -30. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 18. 15. 28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 17. 24. 30. 34. 36. 36. 37. 37. 37. 32. 19. 13. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.5 76.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/14/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.68 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 308.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.44 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.16 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 16.5% 10.9% 7.8% 6.6% 9.8% 13.0% 11.7% Logistic: 2.4% 10.1% 5.1% 1.5% 0.4% 3.9% 6.2% 5.3% Bayesian: 5.3% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 9.3% 5.4% 3.1% 2.3% 4.6% 6.4% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/14/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092019 HUMBERTO 09/14/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 50 55 59 62 69 75 79 81 81 82 82 82 77 64 58 71 18HR AGO 45 44 49 53 56 63 69 73 75 75 76 76 76 71 58 52 65 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 48 55 61 65 67 67 68 68 68 63 50 44 57 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 45 51 55 57 57 58 58 58 53 40 34 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT