* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072019 09/03/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 32 35 36 37 41 44 46 48 51 54 55 58 60 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 32 35 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 32 32 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 17 11 10 13 5 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 1 6 0 -2 4 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 99 110 116 100 89 103 29 326 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.5 29.2 28.2 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 169 169 153 138 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 160 158 158 157 156 133 120 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 12 9 8 12 10 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 63 62 67 65 65 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 10 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 26 15 14 19 0 -32 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 5 34 18 7 27 2 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 6 3 1 0 7 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 327 271 215 163 112 10 -87 -208 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.6 23.6 23.5 23.6 23.7 24.1 24.7 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.6 95.1 95.7 96.2 96.7 97.7 98.6 99.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 78 74 76 79 71 29 12 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 34. 36. 37. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -11. -17. -19. -20. -22. -23. -23. -23. -22. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 21. 24. 25. 28. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.6 94.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072019 SEVEN 09/03/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.58 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.47 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.83 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.89 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 16.0% 10.0% 6.9% 6.2% 9.0% 11.4% 15.3% Logistic: 5.7% 19.8% 11.7% 11.3% 7.1% 22.9% 29.4% 33.6% Bayesian: 0.6% 4.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% 11.0% Consensus: 4.0% 13.4% 7.5% 6.1% 4.5% 10.8% 14.0% 19.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072019 SEVEN 09/03/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072019 SEVEN 09/03/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 32 32 35 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 30 33 27 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 30 24 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 23 17 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT