* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 09/01/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 160 162 156 149 142 132 126 119 111 103 94 87 87 86 88 73 61 V (KT) LAND 160 162 156 149 142 132 126 119 111 103 94 87 87 86 88 73 61 V (KT) LGEM 160 160 155 147 141 132 125 115 110 108 100 92 85 80 71 56 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 11 14 11 14 10 13 10 16 19 27 26 35 52 71 79 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -3 -1 1 -1 -4 -1 -5 0 -2 -4 0 4 10 3 1 SHEAR DIR 325 314 311 322 324 281 270 260 184 197 180 207 208 221 223 226 231 SST (C) 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.1 29.6 28.8 29.1 29.2 28.3 28.3 27.8 26.0 24.9 18.1 15.2 POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 168 168 168 168 160 147 152 154 141 142 136 117 108 77 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 146 146 144 144 141 135 125 129 130 120 122 118 102 94 72 68 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 -50.6 -50.4 -49.9 -49.8 -49.3 -49.6 -49.7 -49.5 -48.9 -48.8 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 5 5 1 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 67 64 65 67 62 61 56 53 45 42 42 43 39 32 31 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 25 28 28 30 32 34 37 38 39 37 37 37 43 39 38 850 MB ENV VOR 11 16 0 1 25 11 25 -2 16 41 108 107 91 126 204 151 52 200 MB DIV 51 49 8 15 23 9 43 16 64 47 89 55 59 90 74 20 4 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -4 -3 1 0 5 5 -4 2 -10 15 26 32 34 29 LAND (KM) 295 244 194 164 134 94 79 79 141 122 81 72 292 333 248 120 84 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.8 29.0 30.3 31.8 33.2 34.7 36.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 77.1 77.6 78.1 78.4 78.7 79.2 79.6 80.0 79.9 79.2 77.8 75.6 72.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 3 5 7 7 8 11 14 17 19 20 20 19 HEAT CONTENT 65 68 75 78 80 76 59 37 56 40 25 31 37 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -11. -20. -34. -54. -70. -85. -96.-102.-107.-113.-118.-123.-125. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -10. -5. -1. 4. 8. 9. 12. 16. 17. 15. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 5. 4. 1. -1. -1. 1. 2. -1. -2. -7. -8. -5. -3. -3. -6. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 10. 10. 9. 15. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. -4. -11. -18. -28. -34. -41. -49. -57. -66. -73. -73. -74. -72. -87. -99. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 160. LAT, LON: 26.5 77.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 09/01/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 73.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.45 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 160.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 536.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.37 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -15.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.8% 4.3% 2.4% 0.9% 0.4% 1.1% 1.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 9.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.5% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 09/01/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 09/01/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 81 77( 96) 59( 98) 45( 99) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 74 71( 92) 73( 98) 30( 99) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 160 162 156 149 142 132 126 119 111 103 94 87 87 86 88 73 61 18HR AGO 160 159 153 146 139 129 123 116 108 100 91 84 84 83 85 70 58 12HR AGO 160 157 156 149 142 132 126 119 111 103 94 87 87 86 88 73 61 6HR AGO 160 154 151 150 143 133 127 120 112 104 95 88 88 87 89 74 62 NOW 160 151 145 142 141 131 125 118 110 102 93 86 86 85 87 72 60 IN 6HR 160 162 153 147 144 138 132 125 117 109 100 93 93 92 94 79 67 IN 12HR 160 162 156 147 141 137 131 124 116 108 99 92 92 91 93 78 66