* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/28/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 60 61 63 65 72 80 82 71 63 57 47 46 45 46 V (KT) LAND 55 57 59 60 61 63 65 72 80 82 71 63 57 47 46 45 46 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 60 61 63 66 69 71 74 70 60 52 49 45 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 15 18 23 24 17 16 32 38 52 63 34 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -3 -5 -3 -4 -4 4 18 17 10 17 8 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 345 3 10 1 350 325 294 266 245 205 207 210 219 216 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.1 26.8 26.7 25.0 23.6 23.7 21.6 15.4 13.4 9.9 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 123 125 124 121 122 108 100 102 92 76 70 67 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 112 110 111 109 106 109 98 93 94 85 73 67 65 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.3 -55.9 -55.9 -56.0 -56.7 -56.8 -55.8 -55.8 -54.5 -54.8 -55.9 -54.2 -47.4 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.7 1.5 -0.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 46 44 46 48 52 55 49 39 41 48 46 50 54 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 23 22 22 22 23 27 32 35 28 26 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 120 111 105 103 96 70 52 57 80 115 157 94 103 114 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -21 -12 -12 -22 -23 9 21 86 44 31 60 67 54 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -3 -4 -2 1 12 20 3 -19 -34 -71 -101 -107 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1618 1494 1370 1293 1220 1225 1414 1661 1368 995 974 1360 1200 1213 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.4 25.2 24.9 25.1 25.2 26.3 28.2 30.9 34.4 38.5 42.5 46.2 49.7 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.0 53.3 54.5 55.5 56.5 57.5 57.0 55.4 52.5 48.2 42.3 35.0 27.0 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 9 8 8 12 18 24 28 31 32 20 18 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 10 13 13 10 5 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -15. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -13. -21. -28. -30. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 2. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 1. 7. 10. 1. -4. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 17. 25. 27. 16. 8. 2. -8. -9. -10. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.4 52.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/28/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.56 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 365.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.26 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.06 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 67.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.33 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 15.1% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 3.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 6.4% 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/28/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/28/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 59 60 61 63 65 72 80 82 71 63 57 47 46 45 46 18HR AGO 55 54 56 57 58 60 62 69 77 79 68 60 54 44 43 42 43 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 53 55 57 64 72 74 63 55 49 39 38 37 38 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 48 50 57 65 67 56 48 42 32 31 30 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT