* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/27/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 50 52 55 60 64 69 76 86 81 73 87 92 91 90 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 50 52 55 60 64 69 76 86 81 73 87 92 91 90 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 48 51 56 60 64 66 70 72 63 54 55 57 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 11 1 7 14 14 20 22 17 7 30 33 29 19 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 3 2 -4 0 -3 -2 1 2 4 0 -4 0 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 169 173 317 328 340 353 327 308 275 233 225 224 252 273 285 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.1 26.9 26.9 26.0 25.0 23.9 23.9 23.4 23.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 120 123 124 123 123 124 121 122 114 106 98 97 93 94 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 104 107 109 112 111 108 108 104 106 100 94 87 84 80 80 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -57.5 -57.4 -57.3 -57.1 -56.6 -56.4 -56.8 -56.5 -56.2 -56.0 -56.6 -57.8 -59.1 -60.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.5 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 48 48 50 49 54 55 54 48 31 26 30 39 45 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 23 24 23 22 23 24 26 28 35 32 27 38 42 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 95 105 99 108 109 91 80 51 22 44 79 -12 -65 -74 -49 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 15 -6 -61 -52 -15 -27 16 46 87 17 12 -16 -4 19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 2 -5 -4 -2 -3 8 19 20 -1 -19 -26 -16 -16 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2202 2091 1982 1836 1691 1452 1322 1292 1382 1590 1640 1483 1346 1266 1212 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.0 26.6 26.0 26.1 26.7 27.9 29.6 31.5 33.4 34.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.5 47.8 49.0 50.4 51.9 54.3 56.0 57.0 57.1 56.1 54.2 51.6 49.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 9 6 5 8 11 13 13 10 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 3 5 7 6 6 7 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 10. 12. 15. 17. 17. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 14. 9. 1. 14. 18. 16. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 12. 15. 20. 24. 29. 36. 46. 41. 33. 47. 52. 51. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 27.2 46.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/27/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.66 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.36 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.07 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 72.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.28 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 12.6% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.9% 1.2% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.4% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 2.9% 0.4% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/27/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/27/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 47 50 52 55 60 64 69 76 86 81 73 87 92 91 90 18HR AGO 40 39 43 46 48 51 56 60 65 72 82 77 69 83 88 87 86 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 41 44 49 53 58 65 75 70 62 76 81 80 79 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 35 40 44 49 56 66 61 53 67 72 71 70 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT