* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 73 74 74 73 65 53 40 30 27 22 22 26 32 37 39 V (KT) LAND 70 72 73 74 74 73 65 53 40 30 27 22 22 26 32 37 39 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 72 73 73 70 64 55 46 39 36 34 35 38 42 45 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 12 9 6 6 16 28 20 16 10 10 10 14 10 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 -1 0 1 12 11 2 7 -1 0 -1 0 0 -3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 225 182 170 209 228 262 310 318 346 20 60 114 152 175 202 205 360 SST (C) 26.3 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.1 24.9 24.4 24.0 24.3 24.3 24.6 24.9 25.1 25.5 25.7 26.0 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 117 114 114 114 110 108 102 97 98 98 102 105 107 111 113 116 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 103 104 105 102 98 91 84 84 85 89 93 96 100 104 107 109 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.0 -54.8 -54.8 -54.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -55.0 -54.8 -54.7 -54.9 -55.4 -55.7 -56.5 -56.9 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.3 0.3 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 7 7 6 3 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 48 49 50 51 51 44 34 29 25 21 18 17 18 23 27 31 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 31 32 31 30 27 23 17 12 11 7 5 6 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR -48 -56 -51 -40 -39 20 20 34 39 10 7 8 6 2 -20 -46 -61 200 MB DIV 0 16 12 16 14 59 22 -31 -22 -22 -14 3 5 19 2 -5 -41 700-850 TADV 6 6 3 10 5 -23 -24 -30 -26 6 9 11 6 11 2 0 -7 LAND (KM) 2339 2349 2233 2055 1874 1481 1169 953 826 770 816 966 1172 1438 1768 2157 2319 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.7 29.2 29.9 30.6 31.7 32.2 32.0 31.3 30.1 29.0 28.1 27.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.7 39.2 37.7 35.5 33.3 28.2 24.2 21.7 20.6 20.8 22.0 24.2 26.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 17 20 22 20 14 8 5 6 9 11 12 14 17 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -12. -17. -21. -24. -26. -29. -31. -32. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -21. -29. -33. -39. -42. -40. -38. -37. -36. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -5. -16. -30. -40. -43. -48. -48. -44. -38. -33. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 28.1 40.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.79 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 422.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.49 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.06 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.68 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 16.2% 11.0% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 4.4% 3.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 6.9% 4.9% 3.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/11/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/11/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 4( 8) 5( 12) 4( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 72 73 74 74 73 65 53 40 30 27 22 22 26 32 37 39 18HR AGO 70 69 70 71 71 70 62 50 37 27 24 19 19 23 29 34 36 12HR AGO 70 67 66 67 67 66 58 46 33 23 20 15 15 19 25 30 32 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 59 51 39 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT