* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 52 58 63 69 74 73 77 72 68 63 59 58 49 36 21 V (KT) LAND 40 46 52 58 63 69 74 73 77 48 35 34 30 29 20 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 55 58 64 68 73 77 51 35 36 38 38 36 31 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 21 14 12 19 15 16 11 15 14 28 38 50 50 65 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 6 5 1 0 2 -2 0 4 4 9 6 15 15 13 SHEAR DIR 297 285 287 285 284 297 315 304 290 282 260 237 231 254 244 252 273 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.4 29.4 29.7 28.0 25.3 25.8 24.0 14.2 17.4 13.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 159 161 159 156 158 164 159 160 166 140 113 119 105 76 81 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 145 147 145 142 142 147 141 142 149 127 104 111 99 74 77 72 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -51.6 -51.4 -50.7 -51.2 -51.2 -51.6 -52.3 -54.1 -54.6 -53.2 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 8 6 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 66 66 64 64 68 69 59 46 32 27 23 34 44 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 22 24 25 26 27 25 28 26 24 23 22 26 24 19 15 850 MB ENV VOR 72 75 79 80 72 60 52 30 43 13 17 26 32 106 121 118 105 200 MB DIV 60 43 26 41 46 22 34 43 62 37 97 66 74 42 53 43 10 700-850 TADV 2 3 10 13 12 23 22 20 12 18 19 3 62 90 93 34 188 LAND (KM) 128 128 113 78 80 217 389 303 59 -132 -45 86 402 491 358 847 1486 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.6 20.2 21.0 21.7 23.4 25.2 27.1 29.2 31.3 33.6 36.0 38.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.3 86.2 86.1 86.1 86.2 86.5 86.6 86.2 85.0 82.9 79.6 74.8 68.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 13 16 21 26 31 35 38 38 36 HEAT CONTENT 59 64 67 62 42 28 53 36 30 5 16 0 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 24. 26. 26. 24. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -7. -14. -21. -29. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 6. 9. 6. 3. 0. -2. 2. -1. -7. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 18. 23. 29. 35. 33. 37. 32. 28. 23. 19. 18. 9. -4. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.9 86.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.46 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.36 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.68 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.46 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 27.3% 15.8% 8.6% 7.8% 10.1% 12.8% 14.6% Logistic: 10.5% 21.0% 12.9% 6.1% 1.8% 6.2% 9.0% 20.4% Bayesian: 4.6% 8.1% 3.6% 4.5% 1.0% 0.8% 0.1% 1.0% Consensus: 8.6% 18.8% 10.8% 6.4% 3.5% 5.7% 7.3% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/07/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/07/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 46 52 58 63 69 74 73 77 48 35 34 30 29 20 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 45 51 56 62 67 66 70 41 28 27 23 22 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 42 47 53 58 57 61 32 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 41 46 45 49 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT