* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 10/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 49 48 49 51 54 54 54 53 48 28 23 21 20 18 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 49 48 49 51 54 54 54 53 48 28 23 21 20 18 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 48 48 50 54 56 55 51 46 38 30 25 24 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 7 1 7 8 14 29 32 22 28 19 27 9 19 31 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 8 5 8 1 4 12 5 0 -5 -3 -1 -2 0 7 1 0 SHEAR DIR 333 337 5 286 271 275 256 256 253 256 269 278 273 327 316 294 281 SST (C) 24.5 24.1 23.9 23.9 24.0 23.6 24.0 24.2 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.1 24.9 24.1 22.5 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 102 98 97 97 98 96 99 100 110 111 110 110 107 107 103 94 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 87 84 84 84 85 84 87 89 98 98 97 97 96 97 94 87 81 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.9 -54.7 -54.2 -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 -54.9 -56.4 -57.6 -57.4 -57.3 -56.9 -57.7 -56.9 -56.6 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 40 39 39 38 40 40 31 23 17 25 28 30 31 35 38 40 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 29 29 27 28 30 33 33 33 32 27 13 7 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 20 27 20 22 75 84 93 -13 -75 -88 -88 -93 -49 -11 -28 -24 200 MB DIV 16 12 -5 -5 -14 2 31 -1 -37 -62 -55 -17 -31 -9 5 15 11 700-850 TADV 14 20 12 12 9 5 -6 -19 -56 -43 -27 11 11 8 -24 -51 2 LAND (KM) 1033 1063 1102 1153 1212 1379 1620 1883 2149 2109 1862 1653 1447 1246 1024 750 266 LAT (DEG N) 37.4 37.2 36.9 36.6 36.3 35.4 34.0 32.4 30.9 29.4 28.7 28.7 29.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 53.5 52.3 51.1 49.9 48.7 46.3 43.7 41.3 38.8 36.3 33.9 31.6 29.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 12 13 13 13 12 10 11 14 17 22 24 23 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -10. -30. -37. -41. -41. -40. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 4. 4. 4. 3. -2. -22. -27. -29. -30. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 37.4 53.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 10/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.86 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 401.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.67 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 28.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 14.8% 10.1% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 3.5% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.1% 4.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 10/07/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 10/07/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 50 49 48 49 51 54 54 54 53 48 28 23 21 20 18 18HR AGO 50 49 49 48 47 48 50 53 53 53 52 47 27 22 20 19 17 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 44 45 47 50 50 50 49 44 24 19 17 16 DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 40 42 45 45 45 44 39 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT