* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/05/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 104 103 103 100 95 94 91 88 85 81 75 64 53 36 26 V (KT) LAND 105 104 104 103 103 100 95 94 91 88 85 81 75 64 47 33 29 V (KT) LGEM 105 103 101 98 96 92 90 85 78 73 68 61 53 44 31 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 2 7 6 11 12 12 7 6 12 15 19 33 36 54 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 3 -2 -3 -4 3 5 9 6 9 7 6 6 7 9 5 SHEAR DIR 6 75 76 48 37 53 60 37 360 303 316 284 258 238 233 229 228 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.8 27.0 25.6 23.9 23.5 27.0 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 134 134 135 136 135 132 130 131 134 121 104 101 139 153 152 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -49.2 -48.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 3 4 3 5 1 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 63 62 64 62 59 55 54 49 46 46 42 43 52 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 36 36 37 39 41 40 41 40 39 39 39 38 34 30 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 61 72 71 73 90 94 78 74 85 72 46 68 67 68 101 90 200 MB DIV 54 66 53 3 7 7 47 52 49 40 51 41 39 18 80 71 50 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 1 0 0 -2 -2 -2 3 7 7 0 1 -5 57 -11 LAND (KM) 1422 1475 1529 1583 1638 1735 1772 1752 1671 1524 1310 1041 725 342 -29 -409 -999 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.5 15.3 15.2 15.5 16.1 16.9 17.9 19.2 20.7 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.0 122.6 123.2 123.8 124.3 125.4 126.1 126.4 126.2 125.3 123.8 121.7 119.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 4 5 8 11 13 16 20 25 28 28 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 4 3 2 4 0 0 0 3 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -18. -25. -31. -37. -40. -43. -46. -50. -52. -53. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 1. -3. -9. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 6. 1. -3. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -10. -11. -14. -17. -20. -24. -30. -41. -52. -69. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 15.8 122.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/05/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.02 0.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 476.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.38 -1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 19.1% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 4.8% 1.7% 1.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 8.0% 4.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/05/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##