* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 10/01/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 28 26 26 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 31 26 29 26 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 30 25 27 24 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 34 36 37 44 63 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -2 -4 -7 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 239 238 238 229 228 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.2 21.1 24.2 30.1 29.7 29.4 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 84 73 106 168 164 161 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 4 3 3 5 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 49 48 52 52 49 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 14 12 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -15 -17 -24 -21 3 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 44 34 31 38 40 50 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 2 6 7 10 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 128 83 -44 29 -127 -457 -750 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.9 29.9 31.3 32.6 35.4 38.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.3 115.7 115.1 114.5 113.8 112.6 111.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 15 15 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 32 7 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 12. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. -3. -18. -41. -62. -78. -84. -88. -94.-103.-118.-127. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -15. -19. -21. -21. -21. -20. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -9. -7. -15. -30. -49. -67. -82. -89. -95.-104.-114.-128.-136. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 27.8 116.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 10/01/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.92 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 171.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 10/01/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##