* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/30/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 56 48 40 33 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 56 48 40 33 21 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 57 50 43 37 28 24 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 18 23 30 30 33 43 62 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 6 6 2 -4 -2 0 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 221 217 229 244 242 239 225 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 24.2 23.9 23.3 22.8 22.0 29.9 29.6 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 105 102 95 91 83 167 164 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 2 2 3 3 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 53 51 50 48 56 59 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 29 28 26 23 17 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 9 12 13 -6 -3 17 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 48 40 32 35 52 61 82 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 8 5 8 1 -8 4 19 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 576 468 364 265 180 -5 -107 -508 -894 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.9 24.9 25.8 26.7 27.5 29.6 32.4 35.7 38.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.8 118.4 117.9 117.4 116.8 115.4 113.8 112.0 110.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 14 17 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 10 CX,CY: 1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 708 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -8. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -16. -32. -44. -54. -59. -63. -69. -75. -83. -88. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -4. -6. -10. -21. -32. -36. -36. -36. -34. -31. -28. -25. -23. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -17. -25. -32. -42. -48. -57. -71. -82. -90. -94. -98.-104.-111.-119.-123. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 23.9 118.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/30/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.06 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 357.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/30/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##