* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/30/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 82 77 70 61 44 29 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 82 77 70 61 44 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 82 75 68 60 45 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 17 17 21 25 34 37 52 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 1 3 6 2 -4 -7 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 213 215 218 216 215 240 242 236 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.6 24.0 24.1 23.9 22.7 24.0 29.5 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 109 103 104 102 90 104 162 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 2 1 3 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 58 53 51 50 51 60 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 34 32 30 24 17 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 23 26 28 15 19 0 10 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 83 59 52 41 39 52 69 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 8 7 10 8 0 -1 5 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 747 658 570 461 356 167 -47 -176 -515 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.9 23.9 24.9 25.8 27.8 30.3 33.1 35.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.9 118.8 118.7 118.3 117.8 116.7 115.4 113.9 112.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 13 14 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -23. -23. -24. -28. -31. -33. -35. -37. -39. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -12. -16. -26. -33. -39. -43. -47. -52. -56. -60. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. 9. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -16. -31. -40. -41. -40. -38. -35. -31. -28. -26. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -15. -24. -41. -56. -69. -83. -91. -97.-100.-102.-107.-112.-117.-120. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 21.9 118.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/30/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.01 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 438.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.42 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/30/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##