* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/29/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 77 71 66 54 40 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 81 77 71 66 54 40 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 80 75 69 62 50 38 27 26 26 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 13 18 19 24 32 40 53 69 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -3 0 5 2 -5 -5 -5 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 226 207 211 224 217 235 241 232 223 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.0 25.4 24.8 24.2 23.9 22.9 22.2 29.3 24.6 19.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 123 117 111 105 102 92 86 161 112 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 1 2 1 3 3 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 62 60 59 53 49 51 61 64 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 32 33 34 32 33 30 24 18 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 9 21 28 19 16 19 0 8 30 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 80 98 73 36 17 40 62 63 65 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 6 6 8 8 8 0 -2 10 14 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 823 769 724 647 558 363 187 -13 -169 -593 -969 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.9 21.8 22.8 23.8 25.7 27.7 30.1 33.1 36.6 40.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.4 118.5 118.6 118.5 118.4 117.8 116.9 115.7 114.1 112.2 110.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 10 12 15 18 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 11 CX,CY: -1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -19. -26. -27. -29. -36. -39. -41. -44. -47. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -18. -30. -46. -50. -55. -61. -67. -72. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -8. -18. -32. -38. -37. -35. -32. -29. -26. -24. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -14. -19. -31. -45. -60. -76. -90.-108.-113.-117.-123.-129.-135.-137. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 20.0 118.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/29/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.04 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.29 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 414.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/29/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##