* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/29/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 43 45 49 54 59 67 73 78 78 73 66 66 64 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 43 45 49 54 59 67 73 78 78 73 66 66 64 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 42 42 44 49 55 62 72 80 84 82 76 72 68 63 Storm Type EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 29 32 33 32 25 19 18 9 13 11 7 7 13 16 5 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -3 -3 0 2 -4 -3 -2 -7 0 1 -6 -3 0 7 SHEAR DIR 24 14 3 357 348 312 272 219 234 194 152 178 129 81 24 346 357 SST (C) 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.1 25.3 25.8 26.0 26.0 26.3 26.5 26.8 26.7 26.4 25.9 25.6 25.1 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 104 104 104 103 105 109 110 111 113 114 118 117 116 111 109 105 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 88 88 87 88 91 91 92 94 94 96 97 97 93 92 88 88 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.4 -55.8 -56.2 -56.5 -56.6 -56.1 -55.5 -56.2 -55.9 -55.8 -55.3 -55.0 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.5 1.1 1.7 1.1 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.1 1.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 8 8 9 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 7 2 700-500 MB RH 48 49 48 49 51 53 54 50 46 43 45 48 55 48 46 45 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 28 28 27 26 30 32 33 36 38 40 40 39 37 38 37 850 MB ENV VOR 153 149 156 163 166 160 182 172 178 183 183 185 182 144 119 112 115 200 MB DIV -27 -10 -1 3 -7 -2 40 7 40 38 20 21 4 -2 18 18 6 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -5 -4 -3 0 -1 0 2 7 7 2 7 -1 LAND (KM) 1360 1398 1438 1463 1489 1502 1522 1548 1599 1642 1637 1579 1502 1376 1274 1178 1046 LAT (DEG N) 34.6 34.2 33.8 33.6 33.3 33.0 32.6 32.2 31.6 31.1 31.0 31.5 32.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.7 51.3 51.8 52.3 52.8 53.7 54.3 54.8 55.2 55.4 55.7 55.9 55.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 3 6 6 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 4 2 1 1 4 8 7 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):220/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -1. 1. 1. 5. 7. 9. 8. 5. 2. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 9. 14. 19. 27. 33. 38. 38. 33. 26. 26. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 34.6 50.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/29/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.18 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/29/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/29/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 43 43 45 49 54 59 67 73 78 78 73 66 66 64 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 41 43 47 52 57 65 71 76 76 71 64 64 62 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 37 39 43 48 53 61 67 72 72 67 60 60 58 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 32 36 41 46 54 60 65 65 60 53 53 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT