* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/27/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 88 93 99 109 108 104 94 85 70 54 37 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 81 88 93 99 109 108 104 94 85 70 54 37 26 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 79 83 87 90 96 98 95 87 72 57 43 30 27 24 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 7 1 3 3 3 11 13 16 23 30 35 45 62 71 67 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -4 -1 -2 -5 -5 -6 -2 0 6 -4 3 -4 -1 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 40 40 56 47 328 70 159 201 216 215 216 229 220 226 224 221 219 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.2 26.4 25.4 24.1 23.8 22.8 20.8 29.3 30.1 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 146 146 144 139 134 127 117 103 100 90 69 158 167 166 165 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 73 70 68 67 66 59 57 56 51 49 49 44 35 39 49 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 30 29 30 35 34 37 37 37 33 28 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 60 60 51 51 51 46 36 51 50 27 18 20 -11 21 19 66 200 MB DIV 27 33 43 43 33 16 47 41 44 22 32 52 68 38 28 24 23 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 6 7 10 10 -15 -2 -2 14 -1 LAND (KM) 746 789 840 878 922 919 884 816 722 561 371 177 68 22 -131 -415 -703 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.6 18.3 19.3 20.7 22.3 24.0 25.7 27.3 28.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.5 115.4 116.1 116.8 117.8 118.5 118.9 119.0 118.7 117.9 116.7 115.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 13 13 11 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 21 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 56.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -18. -23. -24. -23. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 0. -4. -11. -20. -33. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 7. 8. 14. 15. 15. 9. 2. -6. -16. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 15. 8. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 18. 24. 34. 33. 29. 19. 10. -5. -21. -38. -55. -63. -74. -84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.1 113.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/27/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.37 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 18.9 to 1.4 0.81 6.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.36 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 5.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 4.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 -3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.3% 34.9% 27.9% 20.3% 15.4% 18.8% 14.9% 11.0% Logistic: 32.7% 56.2% 35.8% 30.2% 21.4% 21.6% 3.9% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.0% 17.0% 3.9% 2.0% 2.7% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.3% 36.0% 22.5% 17.5% 13.2% 13.8% 6.3% 3.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/27/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##