* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/15/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 50 50 49 46 42 40 36 33 29 26 25 24 23 22 19 V (KT) LAND 45 49 50 50 49 46 42 40 36 33 29 26 25 24 23 22 19 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 49 49 47 44 41 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 39 38 38 37 35 34 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 0 0 -3 -2 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 214 220 223 230 241 264 273 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.3 27.2 26.7 26.6 26.3 25.4 25.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 128 127 122 121 117 109 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 110 109 109 106 104 100 94 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.7 -55.9 -56.0 -55.9 -56.0 -56.6 -57.0 -57.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 39 37 36 34 30 29 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 11 9 7 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 123 94 41 4 -41 -73 -95 -83 -72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 1 1 4 -16 0 1 -11 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 0 1 -11 -13 -9 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1890 1887 1888 1901 1921 2025 1966 1724 1476 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.6 32.1 32.5 33.0 33.5 34.4 34.5 34.0 33.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.0 42.0 41.0 39.8 38.5 35.4 32.4 29.8 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 10 12 13 13 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 7 7 6 3 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 783 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -14. -20. -25. -30. -34. -38. -43. -46. -48. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. -20. -21. -22. -23. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 31.6 43.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/15/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 392.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.32 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 98.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.02 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 2.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 3.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102018 JOYCE 09/15/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/15/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 50 50 49 46 42 40 36 33 29 26 25 24 23 22 19 18HR AGO 45 44 45 45 44 41 37 35 31 28 24 21 20 19 18 17 DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 37 33 31 27 24 20 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 31 27 25 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT