* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/11/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 50 47 44 41 37 36 36 39 39 38 39 41 39 38 V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 50 47 44 41 38 36 36 39 39 39 40 41 39 38 V (KT) LGEM 55 53 52 50 49 45 42 38 37 36 36 37 39 42 46 51 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 19 18 20 27 32 34 38 39 30 18 18 18 15 17 29 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 10 9 6 6 7 0 -2 -1 -3 -3 0 -4 1 -4 -10 SHEAR DIR 243 248 258 262 267 271 271 278 274 267 275 329 324 338 288 290 286 SST (C) 26.3 26.6 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.7 27.8 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.6 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.4 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 126 130 135 136 136 136 142 142 145 143 143 151 148 151 152 149 154 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -53.2 -53.6 -54.2 -54.7 -55.2 -55.6 -55.8 -55.9 -55.7 -55.5 -55.5 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 28 26 27 29 31 33 39 39 43 46 49 52 53 55 53 46 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 15 13 12 12 11 12 13 16 15 14 14 14 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 25 32 40 44 48 50 59 58 64 66 56 43 32 42 54 68 78 200 MB DIV 0 2 0 -25 -36 -4 -21 -8 -19 7 -10 -3 -16 5 8 16 -46 700-850 TADV 4 2 0 -3 -5 -7 -4 -1 3 8 8 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 2 LAND (KM) 500 397 298 200 105 33 175 264 457 687 910 1141 1367 1604 1861 2139 2418 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 21.8 21.6 21.4 21.2 20.7 20.3 20.0 20.0 20.4 21.0 21.7 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 150.7 151.8 152.9 154.0 155.1 157.3 159.6 161.9 164.2 166.7 169.0 171.3 173.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 1 4 9 7 6 7 25 33 35 20 22 32 34 32 27 36 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -13. -19. -24. -26. -26. -26. -26. -25. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -2. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -19. -19. -16. -16. -17. -16. -14. -16. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 21.9 150.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/11/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.11 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 623.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.21 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.13 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 12.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/11/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##