* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 60 59 58 55 51 52 54 56 62 69 74 79 79 80 83 V (KT) LAND 60 60 60 59 58 55 51 52 54 56 62 69 74 79 79 80 83 V (KT) LGEM 60 59 59 58 58 56 51 47 45 43 44 48 56 64 70 76 83 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 9 16 22 23 25 25 24 12 3 14 7 14 9 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 8 14 11 8 12 1 3 -2 3 7 6 3 2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 305 297 283 269 292 310 310 313 305 333 331 55 94 74 104 92 93 SST (C) 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.7 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 131 135 135 135 141 148 158 162 160 156 150 151 149 143 148 151 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 133 133 133 139 146 158 162 160 155 147 147 144 139 143 148 149 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 13 11 11 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 48 49 49 49 51 56 54 50 50 48 50 50 57 57 56 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 20 20 20 17 17 17 14 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 76 68 56 46 36 31 19 21 30 34 44 37 56 58 60 42 25 200 MB DIV 22 32 33 30 31 10 10 17 14 3 -18 3 33 43 53 13 0 700-850 TADV 1 0 -3 -5 -5 -4 -2 -5 -8 -6 0 0 0 -4 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1199 1140 1083 1041 984 757 575 511 363 258 280 222 258 205 196 294 111 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.8 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.5 48.8 50.2 51.5 52.9 55.5 58.2 60.9 63.7 66.5 69.0 71.3 73.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 13 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 15 32 30 17 16 22 39 52 43 63 56 65 85 44 68 49 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. 16. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -8. -10. -15. -16. -16. -17. -16. -18. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -8. -6. -4. 2. 9. 14. 19. 19. 20. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.6 47.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.59 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 429.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.41 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 13.6% 8.9% 6.7% 6.1% 8.2% 7.5% 5.8% Logistic: 1.5% 2.1% 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 1.2% 0.9% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.3% 3.4% 2.6% 2.2% 3.1% 2.8% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/11/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/11/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 60 59 58 55 51 52 54 56 62 69 74 79 79 80 83 18HR AGO 60 59 59 58 57 54 50 51 53 55 61 68 73 78 78 79 82 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 54 51 47 48 50 52 58 65 70 75 75 76 79 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 46 42 43 45 47 53 60 65 70 70 71 74 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT