* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT AL082018 09/08/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 39 45 51 56 56 59 55 53 50 46 43 39 38 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 39 45 51 56 56 59 55 53 50 46 43 39 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 37 41 46 49 51 49 45 41 38 35 32 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 3 5 5 5 8 14 16 18 25 28 32 34 34 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 12 12 14 9 4 3 5 6 9 4 0 0 0 2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 86 74 79 127 113 137 187 223 221 236 229 230 216 217 203 204 200 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.4 25.7 25.4 25.4 25.4 24.8 25.1 25.0 25.1 25.7 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 134 133 130 127 120 113 109 109 109 103 105 104 105 109 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 129 130 130 128 125 117 109 104 102 101 95 95 93 93 96 100 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 68 70 71 69 69 68 68 69 69 62 56 49 49 47 48 48 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 25 22 26 27 28 27 29 26 25 25 25 25 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR 46 42 40 38 34 44 37 17 24 39 48 47 49 45 57 49 18 200 MB DIV 66 49 39 19 2 8 5 36 21 17 22 46 33 43 7 22 26 700-850 TADV 7 -3 -1 1 5 15 14 18 17 13 16 9 10 17 14 8 5 LAND (KM) 130 194 267 378 497 795 1118 1444 1739 2013 2182 2169 2225 2329 2444 2544 2401 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.9 15.5 16.3 17.1 17.9 18.9 20.1 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 18.0 18.9 19.8 20.9 22.1 24.9 27.9 30.9 33.6 36.1 38.2 39.9 40.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 11 13 14 15 14 13 11 11 9 8 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 6 7 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 22. 22. 21. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. -2. -5. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. 3. 4. 6. 3. 6. 2. -0. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 9. 15. 21. 26. 26. 29. 25. 23. 20. 16. 13. 9. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 18.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 EIGHT 09/08/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.83 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.63 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 16.9% 10.8% 7.0% 6.2% 9.4% 12.5% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 13.9% 10.1% 4.6% 1.6% 5.1% 4.7% 3.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 1.1% 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1% 3.7% 4.1% Consensus: 4.1% 10.6% 7.5% 3.9% 2.6% 5.2% 7.0% 2.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 EIGHT 09/08/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 39 45 51 56 56 59 55 53 50 46 43 39 38 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 35 41 47 52 52 55 51 49 46 42 39 35 34 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 29 35 41 46 46 49 45 43 40 36 33 29 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 26 32 37 37 40 36 34 31 27 24 20 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT