* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/04/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 60 59 58 53 49 47 46 48 50 61 65 75 77 83 84 V (KT) LAND 60 61 60 59 58 53 49 47 46 48 50 61 65 75 77 83 84 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 61 60 58 55 51 49 51 54 58 65 76 86 91 94 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 18 16 18 24 19 21 14 24 15 16 10 14 18 11 8 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 9 4 0 10 8 11 4 6 0 -1 -7 -7 0 7 5 SHEAR DIR 228 236 239 240 244 238 241 273 265 262 248 170 174 153 148 122 218 SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.4 25.8 25.6 26.2 26.0 27.6 28.3 28.2 28.3 28.7 28.7 29.0 29.3 29.6 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 118 118 118 112 111 116 114 131 141 139 139 145 145 149 155 160 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 110 110 104 102 107 104 118 125 121 120 123 122 124 129 133 133 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.7 -54.2 -54.1 -53.6 -53.4 -52.4 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.3 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 53 51 51 51 50 49 50 54 56 58 58 56 53 55 56 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 20 20 20 19 18 18 19 20 20 26 28 34 35 40 40 850 MB ENV VOR 76 66 60 54 46 13 -5 -19 -29 -19 -17 -2 17 55 67 71 48 200 MB DIV 10 18 1 -13 -6 25 16 49 5 35 -3 28 -4 57 -3 27 -15 700-850 TADV 13 21 16 16 15 11 15 3 9 6 2 2 2 0 -1 0 3 LAND (KM) 1975 1932 1898 1884 1878 1817 1679 1541 1451 1406 1388 1384 1390 1405 1433 1460 1338 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.3 20.7 21.7 22.8 23.9 25.1 26.3 27.2 28.0 28.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.5 42.6 43.8 44.9 46.0 48.3 50.3 52.1 53.7 55.1 56.2 57.2 58.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 11 11 12 10 10 9 8 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 9 0 0 6 0 13 19 16 19 22 21 23 27 36 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -5. -6. 1. 2. 10. 10. 14. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -2. -7. -11. -13. -14. -12. -10. 1. 5. 15. 17. 23. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.1 41.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/04/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.38 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 411.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.50 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.18 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 14.5% 9.8% 7.8% 6.8% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 4.6% 2.6% 2.5% 1.7% 3.8% 1.7% 1.2% Bayesian: 1.9% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 6.9% 4.3% 3.5% 2.8% 4.0% 0.6% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/04/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/04/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 60 59 58 53 49 47 46 48 50 61 65 75 77 83 84 18HR AGO 60 59 58 57 56 51 47 45 44 46 48 59 63 73 75 81 82 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 54 49 45 43 42 44 46 57 61 71 73 79 80 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 44 40 38 37 39 41 52 56 66 68 74 75 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT