* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORMAN EP162018 08/29/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 53 62 71 78 89 93 93 88 87 83 82 77 74 75 73 74 V (KT) LAND 45 53 62 71 78 89 93 93 88 87 83 82 77 74 75 73 74 V (KT) LGEM 45 53 61 68 75 86 92 95 95 94 91 85 83 79 76 75 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 3 4 8 6 12 11 14 17 14 10 11 8 6 1 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -3 0 -2 -2 -6 -1 0 -2 -2 -4 -1 -2 3 3 2 SHEAR DIR 66 32 42 76 119 88 75 41 54 62 66 49 65 64 88 341 257 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.3 27.1 27.1 27.2 26.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 156 155 153 153 151 146 144 144 144 138 136 136 137 134 137 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -52.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.7 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 66 68 66 65 65 60 59 55 59 57 59 54 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 18 19 21 21 25 26 28 29 31 29 27 27 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 12 17 17 18 21 26 37 44 67 73 86 113 123 135 130 132 115 200 MB DIV 20 38 56 51 56 35 17 16 -2 3 -22 -17 -17 -18 50 18 34 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -6 -8 -4 -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -5 -8 -7 -6 -4 -4 0 LAND (KM) 707 728 760 821 874 988 1121 1310 1513 1710 1912 2131 2263 1993 1721 1449 1179 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.2 18.1 17.7 17.2 16.6 16.2 15.9 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.2 115.1 116.0 116.9 118.7 120.4 122.4 124.4 126.4 128.7 131.2 133.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 28 20 16 15 13 14 21 11 11 11 14 7 7 15 6 4 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 12. 15. 19. 20. 21. 16. 13. 11. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 17. 10. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 26. 33. 44. 48. 48. 43. 42. 38. 37. 32. 29. 30. 28. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.4 113.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162018 NORMAN 08/29/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 14.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 11.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.82 13.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 6.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 9.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 9.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -8.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 3.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.73 1.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 39% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 5.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 60% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 58% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 38.9% 69.7% 61.5% 54.3% 36.9% 59.8% 57.9% 32.9% Logistic: 60.8% 74.7% 69.7% 60.6% 50.7% 68.2% 44.8% 15.5% Bayesian: 9.6% 36.9% 13.1% 6.1% 6.7% 5.7% 1.1% 0.0% Consensus: 36.5% 60.4% 48.1% 40.3% 31.4% 44.6% 34.6% 16.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162018 NORMAN 08/29/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##