* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LANE EP142018 08/23/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 117 110 104 99 84 71 59 51 45 40 36 35 33 34 36 39 V (KT) LAND 125 117 110 104 99 84 71 59 51 45 40 36 35 33 34 36 39 V (KT) LGEM 125 117 109 101 94 78 64 54 46 40 36 33 31 31 31 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 13 13 12 16 19 28 40 45 49 41 34 37 28 21 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 3 7 12 13 10 3 2 0 6 3 4 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 236 245 244 245 230 244 249 261 263 265 257 258 256 253 244 233 281 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.8 27.9 27.6 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.7 28.2 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 140 139 137 137 139 141 138 143 144 143 139 141 147 147 143 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -54.1 -54.3 -54.7 -55.1 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 64 67 69 68 66 62 59 48 42 42 42 45 42 40 38 39 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 22 23 18 14 11 10 10 9 10 10 11 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 63 71 74 78 69 40 32 34 45 58 68 86 94 108 100 94 68 200 MB DIV 58 50 51 69 111 66 32 -10 -38 -9 10 21 59 25 -13 -22 -14 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 2 7 15 16 2 -4 -5 -2 -1 1 9 22 14 5 LAND (KM) 375 320 273 227 200 192 144 117 128 164 307 455 616 788 990 1224 1449 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.5 18.1 19.2 20.0 20.4 20.7 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 156.3 156.7 157.0 157.3 157.5 157.8 158.2 158.7 159.8 161.4 163.0 164.5 166.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 6 7 7 7 8 8 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 31 41 43 39 36 25 16 33 28 20 15 20 25 21 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -18. -28. -37. -45. -51. -56. -59. -59. -60. -61. -63. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -11. -11. -10. -10. -11. -14. -19. -23. -27. -28. -24. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. -3. -7. -14. -17. -18. -19. -17. -15. -12. -10. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -21. -26. -41. -54. -66. -74. -80. -85. -89. -90. -92. -91. -89. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 15.6 156.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142018 LANE 08/23/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.38 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 419.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.44 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.30 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142018 LANE 08/23/18 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING