* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 111 106 98 93 83 79 77 77 79 77 72 67 62 62 58 56 V (KT) LAND 115 111 106 98 93 83 79 77 77 79 77 72 67 62 62 58 56 V (KT) LGEM 115 112 108 103 98 90 80 73 69 68 70 70 68 66 63 58 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 15 20 24 27 28 22 22 17 18 15 12 11 12 10 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 3 5 3 3 0 2 0 -3 -3 -6 -3 -3 -3 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 231 212 213 213 205 210 204 214 199 203 171 137 102 110 113 141 212 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.2 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.6 26.1 26.3 26.5 25.7 25.8 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 144 147 147 139 136 132 132 129 130 125 126 128 120 121 103 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 -0.1 -0.1 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 2 700-500 MB RH 47 48 47 48 46 50 52 52 55 55 55 54 53 51 50 48 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 20 18 19 18 18 17 17 19 18 17 15 13 15 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 41 44 40 34 22 22 -6 -29 -44 -55 -63 -70 -98 -118 -115 -130 -121 200 MB DIV 77 66 51 18 26 21 24 -1 21 8 10 -46 -55 -77 -32 -9 44 700-850 TADV -1 3 5 5 13 12 8 9 3 9 8 1 -2 0 -1 0 15 LAND (KM) 890 961 1043 1122 1211 1408 1666 1941 2217 2479 2738 2529 2345 2198 2029 1853 1685 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.7 19.3 20.1 20.9 22.6 24.4 26.0 27.5 28.8 30.0 31.2 32.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 167.8 168.9 169.9 170.9 171.9 173.9 176.3 178.8 181.3 183.7 186.1 188.4 190.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 13 12 12 10 8 7 8 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 35 23 23 21 17 9 5 4 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -12. -20. -29. -37. -43. -48. -52. -53. -55. -57. -60. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -10. -14. -19. -18. -15. -12. -11. -10. -11. -12. -14. -14. -12. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -4. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -17. -22. -32. -36. -38. -38. -36. -38. -43. -48. -53. -53. -57. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.1 167.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.02 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 928.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.18 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/11/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##