* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 103 101 98 97 95 91 85 83 81 80 77 71 63 57 51 V (KT) LAND 105 104 103 101 98 97 95 91 85 83 81 80 77 71 63 57 51 V (KT) LGEM 105 104 103 100 99 98 99 92 81 73 67 64 61 56 50 42 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 6 10 5 9 16 17 23 19 13 12 18 20 12 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -5 -5 -1 5 10 5 9 6 9 0 -7 -2 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 282 295 232 242 235 187 230 207 226 219 225 178 165 150 95 88 58 SST (C) 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.2 27.6 27.3 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.4 24.8 24.4 24.7 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 142 143 144 147 147 141 138 138 132 129 129 112 107 110 109 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 4 1 700-500 MB RH 44 46 48 48 49 49 48 50 56 55 54 57 60 58 62 59 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 20 20 19 21 23 22 20 20 20 20 19 16 13 10 6 850 MB ENV VOR 45 56 71 66 64 59 57 50 34 13 -10 -20 -42 -52 -45 -49 -88 200 MB DIV 7 42 50 46 54 82 39 50 36 6 8 23 -6 -11 -12 -27 -9 700-850 TADV -10 -2 0 0 -4 3 17 9 13 18 20 14 14 -1 0 -6 1 LAND (KM) 558 577 630 691 772 956 1142 1333 1551 1815 2089 2367 2626 2510 2239 2008 1779 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.5 19.7 21.0 22.5 24.2 26.0 27.7 29.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 160.8 162.2 163.6 164.9 166.2 168.7 171.0 173.1 175.3 177.8 180.3 182.8 185.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 14 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 27 30 33 28 37 31 23 11 8 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -8. -14. -21. -27. -32. -36. -38. -40. -42. -45. -49. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. -6. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -14. -20. -22. -24. -25. -28. -34. -42. -48. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.8 160.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.08 0.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.67 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 786.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.03 -0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.28 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.23 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 18.7% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 6.5% 6.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/09/18 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 34 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##