* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HECTOR EP102018 08/02/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 85 88 89 88 88 86 84 85 84 85 87 85 89 91 89 V (KT) LAND 75 82 85 88 89 88 88 86 84 85 84 85 87 85 89 91 89 V (KT) LGEM 75 83 88 90 91 92 91 90 91 91 89 86 85 85 87 89 89 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 12 13 9 6 4 5 4 9 8 9 9 4 8 7 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -5 -4 -2 -2 -5 -5 -2 2 0 0 7 5 5 4 1 SHEAR DIR 49 55 61 63 41 23 8 10 308 319 351 43 352 61 76 71 37 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.6 28.0 27.8 27.1 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 144 145 142 138 136 141 145 143 136 141 140 140 139 137 135 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -53.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 60 61 61 60 59 54 51 53 53 50 48 44 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 14 16 16 16 18 18 20 23 23 24 26 24 27 28 28 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -7 2 10 10 5 25 26 40 35 33 33 24 18 19 35 51 200 MB DIV 39 50 49 16 -1 11 23 20 13 13 16 -4 -3 22 -4 11 -1 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -5 -5 -6 -6 -2 -2 -1 -3 -2 0 -1 -2 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1700 1781 1866 1967 2058 2237 2361 2132 1903 1654 1406 1169 929 704 498 324 308 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.0 13.9 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 124.0 125.2 126.3 127.5 128.7 131.0 133.3 135.6 137.9 140.4 142.9 145.3 147.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 18 26 27 21 11 5 5 9 13 15 14 16 8 9 13 10 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 6. 8. 9. 9. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 11. 12. 13. 9. 11. 11. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 10. 13. 14. 13. 13. 11. 9. 10. 9. 10. 12. 10. 14. 16. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 14.2 124.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 HECTOR 08/02/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.35 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 8.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.43 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 408.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 -3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.78 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 42.4% 33.6% 30.2% 25.1% 17.8% 19.6% 15.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.6% 16.0% 13.5% 9.8% 10.6% 6.2% 6.6% 1.7% Bayesian: 10.0% 6.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 22.0% 18.8% 15.0% 11.8% 9.6% 8.6% 7.2% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 HECTOR 08/02/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##